Listen below for an in-depth discussion about GTA 6 from the @GTAVoclock team, who accurately predicted large elements of GTA 5 back in 2012.The conversation from the 42m 42s mark about a 'deeper' vision for open worlds is especially relevant in light of Rockstar's recently confirmed plans for Red Dead Redemption 2. That then defines the missions; you’re doing different things in LA than in New York or Miami.Rockstar North’s former President teased the next series entry back in 2013 in a four-part interview with Develop magazine, which got the online rumour mill started:“We don’t know what GTA 6 will be, but we’ve got some ideas,” said Benzies in the interview. The map and story get worked up together, and the story is a basic flow of how it works out so you can layer the mission in."Of course, Benzies didn’t give much away about what form GTA 6 will take and recently left Rockstar North in fairly acrimonious circumstances.“We’ve got about 45 years’ worth of ideas we want to do. However, it’s unlikely that Rockstar will rip up the GTA series’ tried-and-tested development process, where building a world comes first with characters and structures layered on top.However, they are both the product of Rockstar's studios and the company is keen to present Red Dead Redemption as a global development effort.Rockstar North (based in Edinburgh, UK) led GTA 5 development but RDR2 is being touted as a 'full court press' across Rockstar's 10 offices and studios.You can also Greet or Antagonise people, with results depending on their personality.In the Telegraph's recent RDR2 demo, they looted a Fisherman's camp but were spotted by its owner.
In reality, Rockstar are unlikely to confirm GTA 6 until very late 2018 / early 2019 to give RDR2 time to breathe… You can see the gap between announcement and release for previous GTA console games below (we’re ignoring the handheld versions).
RDR2 has been in development 8 years with 6 years dedicated to its new AI system.
If you approach civilians with your gun out, for example, they'll react differently to if you leave it holstered, as noted in the Telegraph's recent RDR2 preview: "In Red Dead 2, people .
Truthfully, nobody outside Rockstar North and their cast-iron NDAs knows anything about GTA6, but using historical precedents and an estimation technique called the Fermi problem, we can establish a more credible outline. The term was recently popularised in the book Superforecasting, prefaced by the question: How many piano tuners are in Chicago? You can apply historical precedent, personal insight (into its creators), snippets of interviews, CV searches and an overlay of societal – and technology – trends, to form a clearer picture.
Without google searching for the answer, it doesn’t sound like the sort of thing anyone would know by heart – but your approach to tackling the question, reveals a lot about the potential accuracy of the prediction. Predicting GTA 6 isn't a pure 'Fermi Problem', in that it isn't a solely quantitive issue, but the structural approach is relevant.